College Football Bowl Games - Comparing Roster Rankings And Outcomes

There was a time in the not so distant past that I was oblivious to the importance of football recruiting. For most of my early life, SMU was a member of the Southwest Conference (SWC), what would easily be a Power conference by the standards of today. SMU played and recruited against Arkansas, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, and Rice. Getting top players to come play in the SWC, in Dallas, and get an outstanding education was pretty simple. And if you were willing to "play the game" that other big schools were playing, you could dominate recruiting - and SMU did.

But something changed in the 80s. The NCAA wanted to make an example of a school in an attempt to reduce the rampant cheating throughout college football, and SMU was the perfect target. It was a private school, smaller fanbase, and less likely to fight back against the selective nature of the investigation and penalty. The NCAA lowered the boom on SMU, shutting down the program for a year. SMU was allowed to play 6 away games in 1988, but opted not to play at all. We would start from scratch in 1989 with a whole new staff and recruit a team from the ground up. I watched coaches/recruiters from every college land on our campus like vultures picking at a carcass, recruiting our players who the NCAA graciously allowed to transfer without penalty. Many of these same programs routinely offered money, cars, prostitutes - whatever it took on the recruiting trail. It was a disgusting day to be a Mustang.

Many people look to the events surrounding the Death Penalty (DP) as the primary reason SMU underperformed for almost 40 years. Certainly it played a major part. But it was truly just the spark that led to the program being put in a position where it could not compete. The real damage came from three key events. 

#1 - The End of the SWC - Had the "merger" with the Big 8 occurred in the early 80s, there is no doubt SMU would have been included - as the best team outside the major state schools. Had it not been for Texas politics, Baylor and possibly Texas Tech might have been left behind. When the dust settled, Houston, Rice, SMU, and TCU had no conference home. Houston chose wisely to look East, and joined with schools who would become Conference USA. The other 3 went West and created the first SUPER conference the WAC 16 - which included teams like BYU, Utah, Air Force etc. On paper, it actually looked like a promising group. But these were teams nobody in Texas followed. The games were late at night, and some programs quite literally could not keep their lights on! Within a couple of years, there was a split, followed by additions and subtractions. And for the next few decades, SMU would wander from one lousy conference to another. 

During this time recruiting hit rock bottom. Nobody wanted to play in some no name conference against some crappy state university. The travel was far and inconvenient for fans. The dates and times sucked. There was little television coverage, and even less national media coverage. And then out of nowhere, the college football experts declared that some universities were more special than others. The special ones were declared morally and physically superior, received more media dollars, better bowls, and were almost guaranteed that one among this anointed few would be DECLARED - NOT EARN, National Champions. So roughly half of FBS, including some schools like SMU who had National Championships, Heisman winners, and 70+ years of playing in a top conference were effectively left behind. And there was little that could be done. Why?

If You Haven't Won A Conference Championship Since The 70s - Maybe You Don't Belong In A Power Conference?

#2 The Pye Penalty - After the DP, SMUs leadership overreacted to the situation. There was NEVER any academic scandal at SMU. Players went to class, made their grades, and graduated with legitimate degrees. In their zealousness to "clean" SMU, administrators first attempted to cancel football, thinking a focus on academics was what the doctor ordered. This was quickly shut down. Athletics are the front door for a university, and every study has confirmed that a successful athletic department keeps alumni engaged and supportive. Plus, a successful and visible program increases applications and quality of applicants. My first real exposure to SMU came from a church youth group watching a game in the Cotton Bowl.

So the "hate athletics" types decided they would "castrate" SMU sports to make sure it would never get out of control, or be nationally competitive. What did that mean? The standards for admittance were raised above any FBS school. Players had to be admitted before they could visit, or even be offered by coaches. For those unfamiliar with college acceptance, getting admitted to a school can be an arduous ordeal - especially before computers. A high school student might be on the edge and dependent on grades in the final semester to pass. Plus, every decent athlete had already accepted an offer elsewhere before SMU got around to accepting and inviting them to visit. It KILLED recruiting, probably as much as our crappy conferences.

The few athletes who were willing to wait, often were rejected in very public and disastrous ways. In football, we were fighting against FCS and JUCO for recruits, and getting excited when we stole a recruit from North Texas. In the early days of recruiting services, our classes were rated among the worst of FBS schools, behind all our natural and historical rivals. And then people wondered why we couldn't win the crappy conference where we were currently stuck.

In the meantime, long time rivals like TCU, a team that I never saw SMU lose to growing up, 15 straight years until after my graduation and the DP, were now out recruiting SMU, and winning. They switched conferences to further separate themselves from SMUs mediocrity - who could blame them? The trend switched, and they were now winning the Iron Skillet much more frequently. 

Apparently, Arthritis Is Contagious At TCU.

#3 Power Conferences - The genesis of this was mentioned above. Suddenly, a select handful of universities were anointed as Power schools for absolutely no reason at all. For every Alabama - that probably deserves special recognition, there was a Vanderbilt, who had NO business being in a Power conference. Teams like Iowa State, who haven't accomplished anything since before the First World War, were arbitrarily determined to be better than all non-Power schools.  As BAD as SMU has been for these few decades, they still have substantially more accomplishments than ISU and many so-called Power schools. And then there are schools just happy to be along for the ride - like Texas Tech, our favorite school in dusty Lubbock, Texas. They have averaged 3.9 conference wins over the last 27 years. Is that Power worthy? Who knows?

If you were a top athlete choosing between any Power school and even the very best "G5" school, which one will you pick? Nine times out of ten, that player is going to pick a Power school. This was something that became obvious observing recruiting for the last few decades. And it was one of the primary drivers for getting SMU back to playing Big Boy football. And since we were effectively blocked by our "friends" in the Big 12, who also assisted in destroying the PAC12 - another possible pathway for SMU, the ACC became our best option. And we will start playing in the fall of 2024.

I must admit there was a time I did not trust recruiting rankings. I believed that the system was rigged, players were rated higher based on picking certain schools. There may be a little of that still happening, but competition between the services has forced them to get better. Plus, in the digital age, its far easier to confirm offers and find out which schools are recruiting certain players. There was a time when player ratings were quite arbitrary. There are areas - small town and private school players that may fly under the radar. But that is quite rare. If you are a decent player with a chance at the next level, you will get evaluated. And if not, players can easily promote themselves and get noticed. And as you go up in quality, from an unknown to a can't miss player, they will be accurate more times than not. There will always be injuries, players not making grades, transfers etc. And there will always be that kid that gets discovered playing 6-man football who comes to town and is All Conference as a walk on. It happens. But those are exceptions.

The services now have composite rankings of rosters, which make it quite easy to compare teams, and as I have played with it, noted that its rather accurate. Take the first few bowls and consider the chart below.

Each bowl game is two lines, winner on top, loser on bottom. I've included a few rankings for reference - although some of those may be post-game. The focus should be on the number of 5-4-3* players, average per player, and total points as well. Comparing those is quite interesting. Take the New Mexico Bowl. I had folks on social media continually tell me how tough CUSA was this year, especially NMSU, who I've heard upset Auburn. But I have watched football for more than a year, and understand there is a definite tiered system of talent. One "exception" does not change the rules. NMSU did have a few highly talented players, but Fresno is loaded and has much more QUALITY depth. The Total Points is a key indicator, but the difference in rated players 3* or better 64 > 27 is HUGE. That means at almost every position, including special teams, Fresno likely had a player that was a little bigger, faster, smarter, or just plain better than NMSU. And the score reflected that.

And Now, We Dance!

As the talent gap narrows, as in the first two bowls listed above, then individual performances, game conditions, preparation, coaching, player transfers or opt outs come into the equation. Georgia Southern had a slight talent advantage, but Ohio won easily. There was an even bigger gap between JSU and Louisiana, yet JSU managed to win in OT. And then take a look at UCLA and Boise - a Power team against one of the better "G" teams. Look at the ranked players - 23 4* to Boise with 1. Boise does have a ton of 3*, but not enough to overcome the talent gap. And of course the score reflects this.

So what does this mean looking forward? Here are a few upcoming games. These are mostly "G5" contests, and other games that caught my eye. It is NOT a comprehensive list.

 

Again, I just want to point out a few and see if they turn out as expected. I will start with SMU, who has done quite well building their team through recruiting, portal, and NIL. We do not yet have a true Power roster - which explains the losses to OU and TCU this year, which both had more or better rated talent, but we are competitive with the ACC. For our game with Boston College, look at the numbers. SMU should have a very slight edge in talent. The one hiccup is the very best player, QB Preston Stone, is out with a broken leg. But there still should be enough talent to win this game. At the very least, we should be competitive. It is a home game for BC, and that far North, weather could play a factor.

Another interesting game to consider is UTSA and Marshall. The latter has a history of giant killing, although it comes and goes. Looking at the numbers, I am inclined to believe UTSA will win big. They have a multi year starter in SR QB Frank Harris - assuming he plays. And if HC Traylor does not get hired away, I think this game goes to UTSA. Talent and depth should overwhelm Marshall, and playing in Frisco - while not a home game, should favor the team from San Antonio.

And now we come to the most perplexing bowl placement of the season. FSU was booted out of the top 4 even though they were unbeaten because of SOS. Liberty was kept in the NYD bowls because they were unbeaten, screw SOS. The consistently inconsistent NCAA strikes again. In some ways, it feels like just another SMU screw job - we've had our share. But the more I think about it there may have been a diabolical reason for their inclusion. It helps the committee justify the absolutely horrible exclusion of FSU. AND, when Liberty gets beaten senseless, it will give college experts another chance to say - "See, G teams do not belong!" I've always believed Hawaii was set up this way in 2007. They were unbeaten, but played a ridiculously easy schedule, not as bad as Liberty - but close. They had no business playing Georgia, and there was little chance the game would be competitive. Hawaii had a GOOD team, but not anywhere close to the talent level of Georgia. Something similar happened last year with TCU. They managed to make it to the championship - I suspect Sonny D made a pact with the father of lies. And in one of the saddest games ever broadcast, TCU was quite thoroughly humiliated in front of the whole world. Georgia was just far more talented than the Lizards that day.

The Flames had a great season. I read that every day on social media. I will never disagree. But when your SOS is 133, you need to, at least mentally, place a little asterisk next to that season. If Liberty played in District 11-6A in Texas, one of the toughest high school districts in the country, including the state champions for both division 1 and 2 this year, they would be undefeated. And that's great. But who did they play? And then all sorts of ridiculous arguments are thrown out, we beat this team, who beat this team. CUSA is at the bottom of the food chain. Its like beating high school teams, just ever so slightly better. Whether you beat SHSU by 4 or 40, its still a team wearing FBS diapers. Its like 1989 when SMU restarted our program - everyone beat the crap out of us. It was shocking when we won! Yet we managed two wins that year - UCONN and North Texas.

There was a time I used to believe that if SMU just had the right coach, he could take whatever roster we had and win the national championship. That only works in Hollywood. The reality is it takes GOOD players, a lot of them. It takes senior leadership, playmakers, depth, solid coaching and good game plans, and then, the players have to execute. More times than not, the team with the better athletes, those more highly recruited and prized, will win. Good players make coaches look much better. Is Nick Saban an awesome coach, or is it because he is 3-4 deep in 4 and 5 star athletes at every position? I guess its sort of a chicken or egg type question. Alabama is going to get top players no matter who wears the whistle. And for reference, this year's Alabama has 74 4 or 5* players on their roster. Their starting teams could almost be ALL 5* players. That amount of talent can make any coach look legendary. And someone who really knows what they are doing will get the most out of them. But if it were easy, everyone would be Alabama or Georgia.

Now consider Liberty's Fiesta opponent - Oregon. By every objective measure, Liberty has no business in this game. They are like Hawaii in the 2008 Sugar Bowl. If they manage to make it a competitive game, I will be happy for them. If they win, I will be thrilled. But the odds are not in their favor.

Assuming most starters play and don't opt out, Oregon will trot out a team with 5 5* and 48 4* players. Meaning that the 2-deep will likely be filled with 4* or better players at every position. Oh, and they have 32 3* players as well. What will Liberty counter with for the game? 2 4* and 19 3* players will get their Flame on at the Fiesta Bowl. Will that be enough? Maybe they will get lucky, a turnover or two? Maybe a key Duck will miss the game? Maybe the Duck's charter flight is late? Anything can happen, right? All they need is a really rousing pep talk, that fires up the players and leads them to certain victory.

Is it impossible? No. In sports, there is always a chance - that is why you play the game. But I suspect Oregon will be playing their 3* players at the start of the 3rd quarter, and will have likely covered the 65 over by then. Maybe the Flames can prove me and the college football world wrong.

Rhett Lashlee - College Football's Coach Of The Year

Its rare that among the nominees for college football coach of the year, that the winner is so obvious. Only NCAA politics could keep SMUs Head Coach Rhett Lashlee from the award he clearly earned. But let's take a look at the evidence and see if I can convince you of this truth.

There are several Coach of the Year awards, here is a quick summary of those.

AFCA COY - Picks their national winner from 5 regional winners. Coach Lashlee was not among those 5. Some folks just don't follow college football.

AP COY - I cannot find a list of finalists. But like the clowns above, they took pity on Sonny Dykes of TCU and gave him the award last year. Remember Sonny, he was the coach who set the record for the most humiliating defeat in a national championship game, losing 65-7? Then he followed that up with a brilliant 5-7 campaign in 2023. Wait a tic, I think Georgia just scored again!

Sonny's Last Days At SMU

Eddie Robinson COY - Voted on by the Football Writers Association of America, this one has released its finalists and it does include Coach Lashlee. The finalists are David Braun of Northwestern; Jamey Chadwell of Liberty; Kalen DeBoer of Washington; Eliah Drinkwitz of Missouri; Jedd Fisch of Arizona; Rhett Lashlee of SMU; Chuck Martin of Miami (Ohio); Mike Norvell of Florida State; Barry Odom of UNLV; Nick Saban of Alabama; Steve Sarkisian of Texas; and Jon Sumrall of Troy.

I will be using the above list of finalists for some of my comparisons, as it seems to be one of the better collections of coaches. This same group also selected Sonny Dykes last year as COY, but they can atone for this horrible mistake by supporting a truly gifted coach, SMUs Rhett Lashlee.

SMU Heisman Winner Doak Walker 

George Munger COY - Another one that includes Coach Lashlee as a finalist. Many of the same coaches above are finalists here. Willie Fritz of Tulane won last year. I give kudos to this organization because when news of Joe "Pa" Paterno came out that he protected a rapist on his team, and enabled a pedophile to roam the campus for decades, they rightly rescinded their three awards to him. It is also why the Joe Paterno award no longer exists. Pedophile enablers, even if they win football games, should NEVER be celebrated.

Home Depot COY - Already made their decision. They selected Kalen Deboer of Washington. So make sure you shop at Lowes or Ace from now on. They also picked TCUs Sonny Dykes last year, so not real sharp when it comes to understanding the game.

Paul "Bear" Bryant COY - Yet another that picked Sonny D last year - I do not understand how this man fooled so many otherwise intelligent folks. They did include Coach Lashlee in their finalists, so they can also atone for their mistake.

Bobby Dodd COY - Focused on teams that meet Academic Progress Rates that exceed 965, and coach must be in their 2nd year or longer to be eligible. Lashlee qualifies on both counts (2nd year; APR 977 T53rd). Willie Fritz of Tulane won it last year - making you think that Lashlee would be in a good position to win this year. The Mid-season watch list did NOT include Lashlee, and I have not seen a finalist list as of yet.

SMU WINS!

There are a few others, but you get the idea.

Let's first look at some of the other finalists. Remember, in most cases, this award is based on performance to date, not what might happen in the bowl games.

POWER CONFERENCE COACHES

I am not opposed to a Power Conference coach winning the award. But what I want to see is a coach who overcame significant hurdles, losing season in 2022, injuries to key players, tragic events like a death in the program family - major obstacles to achieve greatness. Why? If you are in a Power conference you already have NUMEROUS advantages over your peers. Texas, Washington, Alabama, Florida State, Missouri can literally choose who they want to sign. They are major state schools with HUGE budgets, filled stadiums, numerous boosters, best facilities, and play on major networks at the best times. Even Northwestern still benefits GREATLY in the Big10, even though the results may not be as good as their peers.

I also want to see a significant change from the prior year, and achievement WAY BEYOND expectations. Four mentioned above were picked either 1st or 2nd in their conference preseason polls. Improvement from 11 wins to 13 as a Texas or Alabama is not impressive. In the case of Texas, they routinely out recruit all their peers, and load up on talent. Winning in double digits is EXPECTED. Same goes for Alabama, FSU, and Washington. You could make a case for Northwestern or MAYBE Missouri, a big turnaround, but not even a conference championship game? Again, with all their resources, I would expect so much more, even playing in the Big 10 or SEC.

G5 COACHES

I truly despise that term, and HATE that college football is segregated. Thankfully, SMU returns to Big Boy football next year, playing in the ACC. As much as I hate the label, it is a reality of college football today. G5 teams are playing at a SIGNIFICANT disadvantage compared to the POWER teams. Talk to any recruit with any talent, they are far more likely to sign with a Power team than any G5. The reasons - the prestige factor, more likely to play on the biggest stage and against the best opponents. They are far more likely to get a chance to play for a national championship. Facilities are generally better, in fact most everything is bigger and better at a Power school. Even if you leave home, your family is far more likely to see you play at a Power school - carried on major networks, rather than a G5 team on streaming services - if at all.

With that said, consider the coaches who had an impact this year. Did any of these earn coach of the year - even with the limitations of G5 status? I'm working backwards from last to first.

Jon Sumrall, Troy - SOS 95

- '22 12-2 (7-1) SBC; '23 11-2 (8-1) Bowl: Birmingham Duke (7-5) FPI 32

- UNRANKED: CFP, AP, Coaches 

- FPI 45; Sagarin 45; Massey 39*

Troy was picked 1st in West and led all teams with 92 points and 10 1st place votes. Very little change from last year, met expectations and yet unranked. A solid bowl win over a Power team would be a great cherry on top. Solid play earned Sumrall a new coaching gig. But coach of the year?

Chuck Martin, Miami (Ohio) - SOS 114

 

- '22 6-7 (4-4) MAC; '23 11-2 (8-1) Bowl: Cure App St (8-5) FPI 68

- UNRANKED: CFP, AP, Coaches 

- FPI 71; Sagarin 75; Massey 61*

Miami (OH) was picked 3rd with just 2 1st place votes. Nice jump from 6-7 to 11-2 and winning the MAC championship. Team was unranked, a terrible SOS and landed in the high 60s, low 70s for most rating services. A bowl win would be a nice reward for a good season. But what did the coach do to deserve COY?

Barry Odom, UNLV - SOS 68

- '22 5-7 (3-5) MWC; '23 9-4 (6-3) Bowl: Guaranteed Rate Kansas (8-4) FPI 29

- UNRANKED: CFP. AP, Coaches, 

- FPI 74; Sagarin 74; Massey 77*

UNLV was picked 9th with 1 1st place vote. This coach should be worthy of some serious consideration. Took a 5-7 team to 9-4 and won the MWC when nobody thought they stood a chance. SOS is average at 68, not ranked, and ratings in the 70s holds them back IMHO.

Jamey Chadwell, Liberty - SOS 133

- 22 8-5 Ind; '23 CUSA13-0 Bowl Fiesta Oregon (11-2) FPI 4

- CUSA champs - New conference with two teams transitioning to FBS.

- Tot Off #3; Tot Def #47

- Score Off #5; Score Def #40

- Tackles for Loss #54; Team Sacks #80

- Def Tds #25 33-Way TIE;

- CFP #23; AP #18; Coaches #18 

- FPI 49; Sagarin 47; Massey 35* 

Liberty was new to CUSA this year, so somewhat of an unknown. They were selected 2nd of 9 teams, with 4 of 22 1st place votes. I've added some statistical information for additional scrutiny. The biggest downside simply cannot be overlooked - SOS 133. The absolute worst of FBS. Any FBS school would look good statistically and would stack up wins playing Liberty's schedule this year. Just based on roster rankings, half of SMUs schedule would go undefeated playing that schedule. And the offense SHOULD put up huge numbers, and be very stingy on defense, yet they didn't rank so well on D. They managed to get ranked in all the polls, but the ranking services looked at them far more objectively with a 35 - 49 range - which is probably a bit high, but fair. The college football fairies gave them the Golden Ticket to face Oregon in the playoff. This appears like a repeat of the 2008 Sugar Bowl, where an undefeated Hawaii, who played a dreadfully weak schedule, got humiliated by Georgia on national TV - much to the delight of the TV execs and folks who make money off this segregated football crap. If they keep the game within two TDs, I will be pleasantly surprised.

Rhett Lashlee, SMU - SOS 76

- '22 7-6 (5-3) AAC; '23 11-2 (9-0) Bowl: Fenway Boston College (6-6) FPI 86

- AAC Champs - 1st SOLO Conference Title since 1982 (84 shared)

- AAC CCG win over '22 champ Tulane, SMU w/o starting QB

- Tot Off #14; Tot Def #12

- Score Off #6; Score Def #12

- Tackles for Loss #13; Team Sacks #2

- Def TDs #1 5-Way TIE 

- CFP #24; AP #17; Coaches #19

- FPI 20; Sagarin 21; Massey 26*

In the new AAC, SMU was disrespected in a number of ways. Players were overlooked for all conference teams, and most importantly the media voted SMU 3rd of 14 teams in 2023, with only 3 of 34 1st place votes. This is AFTER the departure of Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF to the Big 12. To the credit of this staff, they went to work recruiting and in the portal to add depth and quality, especially on defense, and it showed. This was the best defense by any measure going back to the 80s. And they accomplished something else that has not been done since that decade - a conference championship and undefeated in conference play. In every category that matters, offense and defense, SMU was a top 15 team. And they played a schedule that included two ranked teams, and last year's national runner-up, TCU. I mock TCU and Sonny Dykes, but that team is still LOADED with talent and played a very tough schedule. That team would have easily been undefeated playing LUs schedule.

The point being that SMU maintained the high rankings on both sides of the ball, even against some pretty good teams. Last year, SMU stumbled into their bowl game with a number of key starters either out, or playing injured. This year, the depth was such that SMU was able to prevail even when key starters were hurt. The best example was the dominant performance against Tulane in New Orleans. QB Preston Stone went down in the last regular season game with a broken leg. Kevin Jennings RF stepped in and was able to play well enough for the win. They say defense wins championships, it certainly applied to that game. 

And one final note, Action Network announced their All American Team and SMU had one player on the 1st Team - DL Elijah Roberts. The American conference, in a moment of pettiness, did not think he did enough to earn a spot on the All Conference first team. They even chose Tulane coach Willie Fritz as coach of the year!

Fenway is a nice reward, but SMU deserved better. And Coach Rhett Lashlee, for all that he has done for the team, and the SMU community, has earned the Coach of the Year award.

*Massey Ratings. I did not use the Massey Composite because some of the ratings are downright ridiculous. For instance, Liberty is rated as high as 3 and as low as 89. If you believe either is remotely true, you are delusional. SMU is equally mishandled, with ratings as high as 11 and as low as 78. Clearly, a case of too many cooks in the kitchen who know little about college football. For grins, LUs composite is 20, SMUs 22. 

Links to all the ranking service pages under the Lashlee profile.

Mustangs Stampede To Victory!

SMU At Tulane - AAC Championship Game 2023

SMU In Locker Room

Computer Generated Interpretations of G5 Mascots - Blame AI, Not Me.

Miami (OH) Redhawk

Troy (Modern) Trojan

Liberty Flames? Did Not Compute. 

Vegas Rebel



And finally....

The College Football Playoff Committee Hard At Work

You Know They Take The CFP Super Serious

Its all in good fun. I miss college football without all the politics and BS. Just give me a 16-game postseason tournament where every team has a legitimate shot to earn a bid as conference champions, no loopholes for "special" teams like Notre Dame, no spots given because of ratings or enrollment, simply let the 16 best teams line up and play to see who wins it all. That is my dream. I hate that any computer geeks, sportswriters, or secret committees have ANYTHING to do with postseason.

Let Them Settle It on The Field!

Then the SOS really doesn't matter. FSU, SMU, and Liberty all get their chance to prove they belong and play for a national Championship. That would be swell!

College Football Upsets In The Portal Era

How many people truly believed that Colorado would beat TCU in Ft Worth? TCU was 20 point favorites, and the 2022 National runner-up to Georgia the year before. Colorado had literally tossed aside all its players from 2022 (a team that went 1-11), and rebuilt it from the ground up, primarily with the Portal.

Plus, there was a wildcard - Deion Sanders. One of the more flamboyant coaches in college football. People laughed, and even mocked his effort. The more confident Sanders acted, the more folks secretly hoped he would not only fail, but do it spectacularly on national television.

I like Sanders. I actually think he is a good coach. I did wonder about his methods when it came to his roster. It is his team though, and it was apparent the players that were there did not get it done. Sanders wants to win, and do it immediately to silence his detractors. Making a big and immediate splash was very important.

 

Sanders brought in a whole new team, including key skill players at QB and WR. Suddenly, the talent difference was not that wide. And the skill players for the Buffaloes just a wee bit better than TCUs defense.

Its likely TCU never took Colorado seriously, believing they would simply fold the minute TCU got a lead. But Colorado scored first, and answered every TCU score with one of their own. 

For those aware of the value of the Portal, the outcome was not that surprising. To those who thought TCU was a shoe-in for the National Championship, they got a very rude awakening. It was TCUs 3rd loss in 4 games. Suddenly, it was time to reevaluate their team, and make some major adjustments to salvage an already disappointing season.

Another game that was a bit surprising for everyone was Baylor's loss to Texas State, Most were expecting a typical 50 point thrashing of a G5 school. But this school had a new coach G,J. Kinne, and had hit the Portal hard, landing a QB from Auburn among their additions. The talent difference, especially among key contributors, was a whole lot closer than folks imagined. And one team was hungry for the win, while the other likely viewed this more like a scrimmage.

This was no last second win. This was Texas State playing their game, with Baylor always playing from behind. Before the Portal era, its very unlikely Texas State wins this game. But now, any team can make a significant jump in talent in just a year. And I love it.

Another game that I wanted to consider was Texas Tech at Wyoming. But I could not see a clear connection between Portal additions and Wyoming's victory. This was just a case of Texas Tech being, well, Tech. Wyoming had a full house and the home field advantage. And it appeared that they simply wanted it more than Tech. Maybe a situation where Tech read their own press, and did not expect this game to be difficult. Bad move for the boys from Lubbock.

A closer look at a few games may produce similar results - Duke v Clemson, the pedestrian BYU victory over FBS newcomer SHSU. And of course the Houston v UTSA game. You would think Houston would dominate, but maybe they have not taken full advantage of their P4 status yet to upgrade their talent. UTSA was quite good in their previous conference. Since Houston was recently in the AAC, this was an interesting test for them before conference play. Houston squeezed out a win, which is unfortunate for the AAC.

I'm not a betting man. But if I were, I would start looking a little closer at portal losses, and especially additions. This may produce a lot more parity in future games.

Not to the degree of Colorado, but SMU brought in dozens of players through the portal and drastically upgraded the talent and depth on both sides of the ball. Playing against Louisiana Tech, this was not immediately apparent. But it might be something to watch in coming games against Oklahoma and TCU.

No Sizzle Or Steak - The Death Of The Iron Skillet Rivalry

One Last Frog And Pony Show

Recently, the great and powerful Texas Christian University Horned Frogs announced they were "PAUSING" their annual game with the Southern Methodist University Mustangs. Most of the country probably just shrugged and went about their business, not knowing much about the game or its history. The game was first played in 1915. The upcoming game in Fort Worth (FW or Cowtown), the location of Texas Christian University (TCU), will be the 102nd meeting between the two schools. They were part of the legendary Southwest Conference for 75 years before that conference split apart. Legends of football have played in this game: Doak Walker, Sammy Baugh, Don Meredith, Bob Lilly, Jerry LeVias, Eric Dickerson, and LaDainian Tomlinson. 8 NFL Hall Fame inductees played in at least one game. In the 1935 contest between two unbeatens, the great Grantland Rice called it the "Game of the Century." SMU would win, earning a trip to the Rose Bowl, and was later declared national champions by the Dickinson System. 

TCU and FW Have A Serious Inferiority Complex Towards SMU And Dallas.

They play for the Iron Skillet, which the winning team takes home until the next contest. Nothing fancy, it is just what you would imagine, a big iron skillet. So why the fuss? This game has survived a World War, recruiting scandals, death penalty, conference changes, criminal behavior, and even punks in FW vandalizing my car. It was casualty to Covid, as TCU was concerned they might lose twice in a row playing in Dallas in 2020, which happened anyway, just in FW in 2021. With all this history, why not continue?

SMU Players Celebrate An Iron Skillet Victory

This where it gets fun, hearing all the reasons why TCU wants to pause the game. Allow me to paraphrase some of their reasoning. 

"We have ascended to such lofty heights, we can't lower ourselves down and play a team like SMU."

"They bring nothing to the table. If we win, nobody cares. And if we lose, our season is ruined!" 

"I got hot in their stadium and had to wait in line for water!"

"We want an extra home game so we can play stiff competition like Duquesne and Tarleton."

"We are a major college power now, so we need to act like one. That means scheduling OOC cupcakes at home."

"We want more home games to reduce travel for our fans." 

To be fair, I did a bit of embellishing, but not much. The last one is very close to a direct quote from TCU Head Coach Sonny Dykes, who actually thinks traveling to Dallas once every other year is a burden. Its not desirable as a daily commute, about an hour + depending on traffic between the two schools, but this is once every two years! These are all based on comments from articles, message boards, interviews, and social media. Frankly, if they want it stopped, that is fine. SMU could say many of the same things back to them. But just like a marriage, if one wants out, let them go. Its no fun being in a relationship with toxic partner who doesn't want to be there. I was hopeful they would simply be honest and speak the real reason. But that's not TCU or Sonny's way. He is snake, a mercenary coach, who only cares about himself. He hit the jackpot at TCU, landing right when the team was loaded with talent recruited by Gary Patterson, and the Big 12's traditional powers all had off years. He will ride that success, and Sonny's 65 to 7 embarrassment, as long as he can. I would certainly not trust him, based on how he handled his last year as SMUs coach. His shtick normally lasts about 3-5 years. So it will be interesting to see how long he lasts in Cowtown.

Never Turn Your Back On Sonny Dykes.

15 years ago there was a significant talent gap between SMU & TCU. And it was obvious to anyone who watched the games back then. That was when TCU should have pulled the plug on the series, as they could have made a reasonable argument. Today is not the time. SMU has SIGNIFICANTLY narrowed the gap since then, going 2-2 in the last 4 games. The game for the Iron Skillet often attracts the largest crowd for both schools, as was the case in the last two meetings. Not only is it a 101 year old rivalry, currently 42-52-7 in TCUs favor, but it is a contest between two very similar private schools, each representing the two major cities that make up the Dallas-Ft Worth Metroplex, a metro area of almost 8M folks and growing. By stopping the series, it hurts both cities, as there is one less reason for someone in Dallas to care about FW. Ditto for the folks in Cowtown. The cities continue to grow apart, as the suburbs rapidly fill the spaces between them.

And its not just in recent games that we see the gap narrowing. Look at recruiting, especially portal recruiting. SMU has vastly improved in the last 5 years, even with the latest coaching change. SMU has stronger connections to DISD and the Dallas community than ever before. Sonny knows this. So he cancels the primary means for SMU to demonstrate that the teams are closer than ever. TCUs primary advantages, the "POWER" status and Big12 conference membership, create a perception of superiority that is only maintained by avoiding head-to-head competition with SMU. So he MUST end the game. He cannot be exposed in DFW. Its better to pretend that TCU has transcended the rivalry, that they are so good it simply makes no sense to play the game. It was the way I felt in the 80s. I started watching games in the 70s, seemingly always going to SMU versus TCU games for some strange reason. From that moment until graduation, and the NCAA maliciously shutting the program down, I NEVER saw SMU lose to TCU. I remember as a kid begging my parents to go see any other opponent. SMU would win 15 straight the most in the long series. But things can change. TCU had their run, but the series is still within 10 games.

Is The Iron Skillet Game Important?

As I type, SMU is on the verge of being admitted to the POWER club. There are serious discussions to add SMU to the Atlantic Coast Conference. Its an outstanding conference in Basketball, and pretty darn good in football too, producing national champions in 2013 (Florida State) and 2016, 2018 (Clemson). And unlike others, it is a conference that does place an emphasis on academics, which is a perfect fit for SMU. The geography is not ideal. Yet the upside offsets all the negatives. Our former "friends" in the Big12 have made it clear they will block SMU from their conference. Which leaves SMU in the difficult position of competing at a disadvantage to its natural and historical rivals unless they land in a power conference. It also conveniently gives Texas teams a HUGE recruiting advantage over the Mustangs, as Power status is routinely used in negative recruiting. So its convenient that TCU can block SMUs attempts at joining the Power club AND cut off the one opportunity, head-to-head competition, to impress recruits.

Happy Mustang Fans Show Their Pony Ears!

SMU as a member of POWER conference is a game changer. People seem shocked, or angry to here that SMU offered not to take any media handouts for up to 7 years in the ACC. This of course helps the ACC address some financial concerns with members, and build incentives for winning - which further addresses perceived conference inequities. What does SMU get in return? Its amazing so many people fail to grasp the huge win of losing the G5 label. The most obvious advantage is the schedule. In every sport, SMU will entertain some of the best brands in the country. Hosting a Clemson for football, or a Duke for basketball immediately leads to a likely sell-out, even with premium pricing. And of course you want to be competitive, and SMU thinks with POWER status that should be doable quite quickly. So suddenly your recruiting receives an immediate boost, alum/donor interest spikes - as many have no interest playing some unknown university that just moved up to FBS. Seeing their school now playing Big Boy Football is interesting again. Same goes for advertising and corporate partners. Suddenly you are not losing money, you are making money. And its not as if we were getting wealthy in the AAC - which is really what is being lost.

If Left Untreated, Arthritis Can Be Crippling At Any Age.

Don't forget all the intangibles of this move. SMU will be associating with some of the top Academic institutions in America. We will have exposure to folks on both coasts, which means more publicity and likely an uptick in out-of-state applications, and an overall increase in the quality of applicants. Presidents LOVE that. In athletics, every sport features schools that are at the top of the pecking order. So SMU will be competing against the very best in every sport which we compete. Iron sharpens iron. That means across the board, SMU should have an easier time recruiting much better athletes in the nonrevenue sports, which furthers the SMU brand, and MAY make them, if not profitable, maybe they lose less money by attracting more fans, sponsors, and donors.

Academic/Research Rankings Of Various Schools

Why TCU Fears SMU

The simple answer is, overall, SMU is a better university. Our NIL/portal game will always be stronger. Sonny D is already begging for more NIL contributions at TCU. Academics - SMU has the edge (see above). Location - Dallas over Cowtown every day of the week, and twice on Sunday. Facilities - The Hilltop versus a giant La Quinta Inn, easy pick there. Alumni Wealth - SMU is BLE$$ED. Scenery - SMU, no question - see above. Bands - Best Dressed Band In The Land, versus TCU who wears high school uniforms.

Its Not That TCU Is Bad. SMU Is Just So Much Better!

By almost every metric, SMU is superior. Same with Dallas. Although Dallas shares DFW with Fort Worth, anyone who has ever traveled knows that people outside of Texas and overseas KNOW Dallas, but are clueless about Ft Worth. So folks just say they are from Dallas, not Arlington, Plano, Allen, or even Ft Worth. That seems trivial, but it has merit. I don't know how many times in my travels here and abroad, I said McKinney, Mesquite, or Plano, and then noting their confused looks, simply said Dallas. And frankly, they might as well build a border wall at Highway 360, because its rare to travel to Dallas from FW, and even rarer to go from Dallas to FW. Why? Its too far for a night out on the town. And there is not enough interesting things to do for an overnight stay. If there is a convention there, then maybe you spend the night and visit the Water Gardens where Logan's Run was filmed. That's something. Or, you could watch Longhorn cattle that look they are about ready to become steaks meander down the street. And while neither city has yet to be ranked in the Top 100 cities to visit worldwide, Dallas lands at a comfortable #14 in places to visit in America. FW is lumped together as Dallas-Ft Worth, encompassing the entire 13 county metro area at #23. Even McKinney, Texas landed on the list separately at #59, along with Ennis, TX at #60, Waco, TX #61, Galveston, TX #62. Way to go McKinney, Ennis, Waco, and Galveston! And just to wrap it all up - Houston #21, San Antonio #50.

So imagine SMU, with all the above advantages, in a Power conference and on the recruiting trail. The ability to attract the very top athletes becomes possible, or at least we are in the conversation. Then we can share all the other advantages like playing in Dallas in front of friends and family. How about getting an excellent education and access to one of the best concentrations of corporate headquarters in the country. If they want to play professionally, every major sport is represented in Dallas, so plenty of opportunities no matter what God has planned for their lives!

Beautiful Downtown Dallas, Texas

The Dallas metro area is exploding, expected to surpass Chicago as early as 2030, and be #1 by 2100. We will likely be gone, but what will SMU be like? The seeds we plant today will lead to the harvest tomorrow. Facilities investment - nearly $250M over the last decade. And most importantly, doing what we can to get Power status, maybe ACC, maybe somewhere else. That is truly the only thing holding SMU back. Weasels like Sonny know this, and use that difference all the time against us. All the Texas POWER schools do - It does matter to many top athletes. 

Will The ACC Add SMU?

And what will the growth of DFW and membership in the ACC do for the main purpose of SMU - higher education? NYU, USC, and Northwestern have all benefitted from being in very large metro areas. What happens as SMU grows and invests along with the growth of the metro area? How much can they improve their academic reputation? What about undergraduate enrollment? Folks have sometimes pointed to SMUs small size as a negative when it comes to realignment. If SMU grows with the area, maybe its comparable in size to a USC, NYU, or Northwestern? A population of 10 to 20k can make a huge difference for attendance on gameday. But it must be done without sacrificing the quality of the education.

Power status means more media coverage, better poll consideration - some sports "journalists" refuse to even vote for G5 teams, better competition, and of course better bowl/playoff options. Everyone knows this, but I think its good to remember what happens when you get the Golden Ticket. Although some likely don't deserve it.

Its comical how the criteria for POWER status seems to change with the seasons. Sometimes athletic accomplishments matter, other times location, attendance, or viewership. Just recently with the PAC, academics was an important consideration, now its all about financial impact. That is why I chuckle when people on social media start trying to make hay over athletics - like it mattered with Rutgers, or the recent Big 12 additions. 

Historically, SMU can stand up with anyone. Hall of Famers, National Championships, Heisman Winner, All Americans, conference championships, rankings, and NFL players. Its amazing what we have done, IN SPITE OF the Death Penalty, Pye Penalty (Administration Shenanigans), bad coaches, and even worse conferences. SMU has a pretty strong athletic case. Last 5 years - 37 wins. Compared to ACC, only 4 teams had more w's - Clemson 60, Pitt 41, WF/NCST 38, & Indy ND 53. Of course some knucklehead will point to competition. Hey, we can only play the games scheduled. Last year we faced 6 now "Power" teams. And were competitive in most, beating Houston in a record breaking shootout. We've gone 2-2 against TCU last 4 games. What happens against POWER teams when SMU shares that status? How much will recruiting/portal improve in 2-3 years of recruiting as a POWER school in a decent conference?

I love comments from Power conference fans. Take Illinois for example. What do they truly contribute? They averaged 2.48 conference wins the last 23 years. Last 5 - 25 total wins. SMU had 37. Some schools are willing to pay whatever it takes to be with, and play the best, while others are entitled deadbeats.

You could go through all the POWER conferences and create a whole conference of welfare colleges, schools soaking in the money and status, and yet without a hope of ever being nationally relevant.

I just want realignment over, and soon. I used to love college football, now its much harder to enjoy because of this never-ending speculation, conference changes, lost rivalries, and really dumb sports opinions by jealous fans and ignorant podcasters pretending to be journalists.

The amusing part of TCUs "pause" is that it is absolutely the worst possible thing for them to do right now. The announcement outside of FW was universally panned. Most sports fans saw right away what was going on and rightly criticized the move. Coming off their greatest season since the 30s, even with the record-setting humiliation, they were flying pretty high. This was a self-inflicted PR wound. It will heal. But recruits notice these things, and no matter how much Sonny attempts to spin the situation, it simply looks like fear. So every other year TCU has an extra home game. Against whom? Will Tarleton or Duquesne - two of their recent opponents, fill the stadium with happy Lizard fans? How many big time POWER teams are coming to FW in September? If they are worth a darn, they are scheduling like TCU - a bunch of cupcakes at home. And God help Sonny if a Portland State or North Dakota State shows up at ACS and wins. Although I doubt Sonny schedules anyone that good.

Here's the quandary for the Frogs. The same claim they have for SMU is true of ANYONE they bring in for an OOC game. If they win, nobody cares. If they lose, its catastrophic to their season. So if SMU were to be a POWER school, a loss would be far less damaging. A win would maintain their recruiting edge - even while both teams are finally on a level playing field. A once every other year drive to Dallas is not cumbersome on the fans. But how much is lost by NOT PLAYING IN DALLAS? How many recruits live on the Dallas side? Its not like driving to Ft Worth is convenient for a 17-year old. For someone who lives in Allen or Duncanville, going to Ford is easy.

Out Of Sight, Out Of Mind

People in FW believe that just because of proximity, they are top of mind in Dallas. Not at all. There are different newspapers, radio and even TV seem to have a preference based on their locations. If TCU stops playing in Dallas, they will slowly fade from the conversation as did Texas Tech, Baylor, Arkansas, and even A&M. UT and OU continue to be somewhat relevant, as they continue their game during the State Fair. But once they are gone, their coverage goes back to normal. Sure TCU will be mentioned if they manage to get lucky and make the CFP again. That goes without saying as its newsworthy. I'm talking about the daily mentions, building awareness among folks that matter - recruits, coaches, alums, donors, and corporate sponsors.

Who gets more coverage in Dallas when Clemson comes to town to play SMU at Ford, or Duke arrives to play at Moody? While TCU is facing some FCS scrub so they can play another home game "for the fans" or something? 

TCU is fleeing the Iron Skillet at the wrong time and for the wrong reasons. But its their choice. This is likely the first misstep of many that Sonny D will make to bring TCU down. That is hard to imagine now, but they have likely peaked. The Big 12 will be a tough league because of parity. Once UT and OU leave, and the newbies start recruiting as Power teams, its going to be difficult to go a season without dropping a game. Yes, you will have your Iowa St and Texas Tech - the deadbeats to pad the records, but Utah, Cincinnati, BYU, and even UCF will make things interesting in time. Playing OOC creampuffs will hardly prepare a team for that.

After I composed this blog, I came across the following that I thought was interesting.

Apparently, There Are Few In FW That Understand.

If you read this far, THANK YOU. I appreciate you visiting and allowing me to rant. My first college game was in the 60s, sitting on my Father's lap watching Texas, as he graduated from UT after returning from World War 2. My Mother, an SMU grad had some influence on me. But it was going to my first SMU game, and also seeing the campus when we moved in my oldest sister as a freshman, that changed my life. It was love at first sight. Another sister would graduate from SMU before it was my time.

I have so many fond memories of watching and listening to SWC games - yes before the Internet, most games were on the radio, and maybe 1 or 2 SWC games would be broadcast. While in college I traveled to many away games - it was so much fun. I miss the SWC, and yet know those days are gone. That is the source of my passion.

And just so we are clear, I DO NOT hate TCU or Ft Worth. Its a great school and beautiful town. All my remarks, please take with a grain of salt. I have historically rooted for Texas teams whenever they played out-of-state opponents. I've had to evolve, but I still have a soft spot for Texas teams - until some knucklehead on social media provokes me with stupidity. TCU is proof that SMU CAN rebuild and be nationally relevant. Being in a Power conference can only help SMU grow. I would love if one day the two schools could have another "Game of the Century" - but that may not be in the cards for the next few years. And that's sad.