Tuesday, September 05, 2023

College Football Upsets In The Portal Era

How many people truly believed that Colorado would beat TCU in Ft Worth? TCU was 20 point favorites, and the 2022 National runner-up to Georgia the year before. Colorado had literally tossed aside all its players from 2022 (a team that went 1-11), and rebuilt it from the ground up, primarily with the Portal.



Horned Lizard



Plus, there was a wildcard - Deion Sanders. One of the more flamboyant coaches in college football. People laughed, and even mocked his effort. The more confident Sanders acted, the more folks secretly hoped he would not only fail, but do it spectacularly on national television.


I like Sanders. I actually think he is a good coach. I did wonder about his methods when it came to his roster. It is his team though, and it was apparent the players that were there did not get it done. Sanders wants to win, and do it immediately to silence his detractors. Making a big and immediate splash was very important.


 

Colorado Beats TCU


Sanders brought in a whole new team, including key skill players at QB and WR. Suddenly, the talent difference was not that wide. And the skill players for the Buffaloes just a wee bit better than TCUs defense.


Its likely TCU never took Colorado seriously, believing they would simply fold the minute TCU got a lead. But Colorado scored first, and answered every TCU score with one of their own. 


For those aware of the value of the Portal, the outcome was not that surprising. To those who thought TCU was a shoe-in for the National Championship, they got a very rude awakening. It was TCUs 3rd loss in 4 games. Suddenly, it was time to reevaluate their team, and make some major adjustments to salvage an already disappointing season.



Another game that was a bit surprising for everyone was Baylor's loss to Texas State, Most were expecting a typical 50 point thrashing of a G5 school. But this school had a new coach G,J. Kinne, and had hit the Portal hard, landing a QB from Auburn among their additions. The talent difference, especially among key contributors, was a whole lot closer than folks imagined. And one team was hungry for the win, while the other likely viewed this more like a scrimmage.



Baylor Loses to Texas State


This was no last second win. This was Texas State playing their game, with Baylor always playing from behind. Before the Portal era, its very unlikely Texas State wins this game. But now, any team can make a significant jump in talent in just a year. And I love it.



Another game that I wanted to consider was Texas Tech at Wyoming. But I could not see a clear connection between Portal additions and Wyoming's victory. This was just a case of Texas Tech being, well, Tech. Wyoming had a full house and the home field advantage. And it appeared that they simply wanted it more than Tech. Maybe a situation where Tech read their own press, and did not expect this game to be difficult. Bad move for the boys from Lubbock.



Wyoming Beats Texas Tech


A closer look at a few games may produce similar results - Duke v Clemson, the pedestrian BYU victory over FBS newcomer SHSU. And of course the Houston v UTSA game. You would think Houston would dominate, but maybe they have not taken full advantage of their P4 status yet to upgrade their talent. UTSA was quite good in their previous conference. Since Houston was recently in the AAC, this was an interesting test for them before conference play. Houston squeezed out a win, which is unfortunate for the AAC.



I'm not a betting man. But if I were, I would start looking a little closer at portal losses, and especially additions. This may produce a lot more parity in future games.



Not to the degree of Colorado, but SMU brought in dozens of players through the portal and drastically upgraded the talent and depth on both sides of the ball. Playing against Louisiana Tech, this was not immediately apparent. But it might be something to watch in coming games against Oklahoma and TCU.



SMU Football


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